note

Current public-DAV authority boundary — 2026-07-12. Pre-launch target design; nothing here proves a live system. A public-DAV consequence may occur only when at least two natural-person councilors bind the exact consequence in a complete valid bound PRISM decision receipt. PRISM records and verifies that receipt only; it never serves as council, signatory, authority, or receipt producer. AI and caste seats stage unsigned proposals only; they never authorize or execute a public-DAV consequence. Constitution or membership adoption establishes constitution and membership only; it does not authorize a later consequence. Policy may constrain an unsigned proposal but never authorizes execution or substitutes for the complete consequence-bound receipt. Before receipt validity, consequence fails closed to read-only proposal, simulation, or deterministic sandbox; live evidence remains gated_pending_complete_valid_bound_receipt. Software deterministically carries out only the exact consequence bound to a complete valid bound PRISM decision receipt from at least two natural-person councilors binding that exact consequence.

Scope: forecast organ feeding the non-economic forecast capability merged into Signal inside Skyzai Personal. Stakes route separately to Pay; orders use the Markets compatibility handle and Pay's separately gated settlement path. realityfutures.com is an adjacent venture, not a buyer package. This organ prices COULD; it never executes. See The Product Family.

RealityFutures — Prediction Markets (COULD)

realityfutures.com | Organ 2 of 4 | Three-Stage Process: COULD (predict) | Code-only P-score: 0.59

RealityFutures is the organism's probability engine. It performs one function: price what COULD happen, using skin-in-the-game prediction markets. It does not observe (that is Circle). It does not judge (that is APU). It does not act (that is Skyzai). It prices.

Current Evidence Note (2026-04-19)

• 18 Solidity contracts and a web app are present in code
• Forge test lane passes
• organism-local loops still use a statistical F2 fallback instead of live deployed market-backed emission

The organ capability

ReFu is a prediction market platform where participants bet on future outcomes. The market price IS the probability. This is not metaphor — it is a mathematical property of the LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) that ReFu uses as its automated AMMs.

LMSR: Price = Probability

The Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (Hanson 2003) is the AMM engine:

Price(outcome_i) = exp(q_i / b) / sum(exp(q_j / b))

Where:
- q_i = quantity of shares for outcome i
- b = liquidity parameter (controls market depth)

Properties:

• Price = probability: The market price of a share that pays 1 if outcome occurs IS the market's aggregate probability estimate for that outcome.
• Bounded loss: The AMMs's maximum loss is b x ln(n) where n is the number of outcomes. Known, finite, predictable.
• Skin in the game: Every probability estimate costs real tokens. Cheap talk is impossible. Lying is expensive.

Why Prediction Markets Beat Experts

• Experts have incentives to hedge. A consultant who says "70% chance" faces no penalty if wrong. A market participant who buys at 70% and the event doesn't happen loses real money.
• Markets aggregate private information. A trader who knows something the market doesn't can profit by moving the price. The price incorporates their private information without requiring them to disclose it.
• Markets self-correct. A wrong price is a profit opportunity. Arbitrageurs push the price toward truth.

AI Enhancement: TimesFM + Chronos

ReFu augments human prediction with two AI forecasting models:

• TimesFM (Google): Foundation model for time-series forecasting. Provides baseline probability estimates for markets with historical data.
• Chronos (Amazon): Pretrained probabilistic time-series model. Provides uncertainty bounds.

AI predictions seed the market. Human participants adjust the price based on private information the AI cannot access. The combination outperforms either alone.

Adjacent-venture economics — not package topology

The following possibilities belong to the adjacent realityfutures.com venture. They do not create a Forecasts product, a third Skyzai package, or authority to execute an order or settlement.

Stream	Mechanism	Target
LMSR spread	The mathematical cost of AMM-based coordination (bounded by b x ln(n))	All market participants
Market creation fees	Small fee to create a new prediction market	Analysts, researchers, organizations
API access	Probability feeds for downstream consumers (Circle, APU, external)	Developers, quant funds

The LMSR spread is not extraction. It is the mathematical cost of providing infinite liquidity to any participant at any time. The AMMs (the protocol) bears bounded risk in exchange for the spread. eta = 0.

AXIOM Output

When a ReFu prediction market resolves (the outcome is known), it produces an AXIOM — a settled truth established by N:1 convergence of skin-in-the-game predictions. AXIOMs are the organism's hardest facts because they were paid for.

AXIOMs feed:

• Circle's intelligence graph (updating source reliability based on predictive accuracy)
• APU's decision inputs (settled probabilities inform the Court Deliberation)
• FlowWallet conditions (streams conditioned on AXIOM states)

Current Status

• code-only P-score: 0.59
• contract/test lane: verified locally
• live market-backed Kind 31338 emission: not yet public/runtime truth
• deployed web app / public market loop: not yet the claim this page should make
• statistical fallback in organism-local proof loops: yes

---

Price = probability. Probability = skin in the game. Settled bets = AXIOMs. Truth you can bank on.

---

Agent Execution Surface

If you are an AI agent reading this document:

1. This is a downstream public content page. The canonical source lives in EMERGENTISM_ORG/08_FRAMEWORK_SUPPORT/ or SKYZAI_ORG/. Edit source upstream, not here.
2. Preserve evidence tiers. Do not promote claims up the [C] < [D] < [S] < [B] < [E] ladder when reproducing them here; [I]/[A] qualifiers never substitute for [B]/[E].
3. Regenerate from source. If the upstream source changes, regenerate this page rather than editing it independently.
4. Canonical Path: SKYZAI_ORG/07_PWAs/skyzai_org/wiki/92-refu.md

Output: This is content. Route edits to upstream source. Regenerate when source changes.

K3 public-DAV authority history — 2026-07-12

K3 historical reference — not active authority

note

Current public-DAV boundary — 2026-07-10. Pre-launch target design; nothing here is live. The active DAV is public and targets PRISM, with no K2 runtime, launch, genesis/bootstrap, or fallback dependency. Consequential authority requires at least two natural-person councilors; AI/caste seats stage unsigned proposals only. Before quorum, behavior fails closed to read-only/proposal, simulation, or deterministic sandbox, and a live decision receipt remains gated pending quorum.